In 2018, China's viscose staple fiber production capacity increased by nearly 700,000 tons, and the 700,000 tons of new production capacity basically completed by the end of 2018. Due to the increase of production capacity, the viscose staple fiber market gradually shows a pattern of "supply exceeds demand, price falls".
From January to March 2019, the production of viscose staple fibers was about 950,000 tons, and the inventory in the first quarter was about 400,000 tons. The production and sales rate of the whole industry was only 57.89%. From January to March 2019, the market price of viscose staple fibers was 13,750 yuan/ton at the beginning, and the average market price of viscose staple fibers was 12,000 yuan/ton at the end of March, with a decline of 12.73%. From the production and marketing data and price data, viscose staple fibers are experiencing a great shock of energy and price rebalancing after full release of production capacity.
For the viscose staple fiber market in the second quarter, the author believes that once the industry start-up rate drops, its market bottom will appear at any time. That is to say, the viscose staple fiber market price is expected to rebound in the second quarter of 2019. Employees need not be intimidated by the rapid decline of viscose staple fibers in the first quarter. Viscose staple fibers factories need to adjust their start-up rate reasonably. After the bottom of the policy is seen, they should reduce their panic and actively go to stock. Downstream yarn factories can also actively participate in market game and share the dividends brought by the bottom of the policy and market when the start-up rate of viscose staple fibers industry has been reduced. In this way, viscose staple fiber industry is expected to step out of the deep loss situation.