A ‘no deal’ Brexit would have a detrimental impact on the textile and clothing (T&C) industry, with job losses over 100,000 for 27 European Union (EU) nations and over 27,000 for the United Kingdom, a new study commissioned by the European Apparel and Textile Confederation (EURATEX) with the University of Leuven reveals.

Output losses for the UK would be 41.8 percent of its value added in T&C production, while the EU-27 as a whole would lose about 9.7 percent, according to an EURATEX press release.

 

Negotiators are making a final effort, but a ‘no deal’ can still occur if there is no timely ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement, or if the Withdrawal Agreement is ratified but no agreement on the EU-UK future relationship is struck before the end of the transition period.

 

A soft Brexit scenario would minimise the damage, but it would still disrupt European value chains and lead to heavy job losses. A soft Brexit would still be significant with, for United Kingdom, 4,759 jobs lost and an output loss of 7.3 percent of its value added; while for the EU27, 17,786 jobs will be lost and there would be output losses of 1.7 percent of its value added.

 

Under a no deal Brexit, the output losses for the United Kingdom would be 41.8 percent of its value added in production, while the EU-27 as a whole would lose about 9.7 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP). For the UK this corresponds to absolute job losses of 27 141 jobs, while for the EU27 as a whole the job loss would amount to 101 756 jobs lost.

 

With no surprise, the largest share of the EU27 job losses take place, in decreasing order, in Italy, Romania, Portugal, Germany, France, Spain and Poland.

 

Under a hard Brexit, about respectively 27 000, 12 000 and 11 000 jobs will be lost in Italy, Romania and Portugal, which corresponds to about 27 percent, 12 percent and 10 percent of the EU-27 total working population in the sector.