Status quo of the chemical fiber industry, 1 - 9, 2017
Jan 15, 2018 ｜ by
From January to September, 2017, the operation of the chemical fiber industry continued to keep an upward situation. As the textile industry got warmer, the demand of the chemical fiber industry had significant improvement. The entire operation rate of the industry has improved from that of the same period in the previous year. It was not slack in the chemical fiber market even in off seasons. In the third quarter, the chemical fiber market presented to have the increasing cost, low inventory, strong demand and profound market atmosphere. The operation quality of the industry was improved and the profiting performance was also promoted. The investment had the rebound tendency. It is required to pay close attention.
Basic condition of the industrial operation
l Manufacturing
As the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the total output of the chemical fiber from January to September was 38.608 million tons, which had a year-on-year growth of 5.7%. The growth has declined 0.53% compared with the same period of the previous year. It displays that the structural regulation and amount control of the chemical fiber industry have obtained a certain effect. However, the growth rate has also improved compared with that of the first half year. It reflects a good market condition and improved operation rate. From the perspective of different products, the polyester output was 30.8252 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 5.23%; the polyamide output was 2.6171 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 11.6%; the man-made fiber output was 3.3629 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 4.28%.
Table 1 Chemical Fiber Industry Output, 1 - 9, 2017
|
|
Output in Jan. – Sep. (10,000 tons) |
Output during the same period of the previous year (10,000 tons) |
Y/Y
(%) | ||
|
Chemical fiber |
3860.80 |
3652.61 |
5.70 | ||
|
|
Man-made fiber |
336.29 |
322.49 |
4.28 | |
|
|
Viscose staple fiber |
278.87 |
269.18 |
3.60 | |
|
Viscose filament |
13.17 |
12.23 |
7.13 | ||
|
Acetate filament |
27.98 |
26.47 |
5.70 | ||
|
Synthetic fiber |
3519.13 |
3325.90 |
5.81 | ||
|
|
Polyester fiber |
3082.52 |
2929.32 |
5.23 | |
|
Polyamide fiber |
261.71 |
234.50 |
11.60 | ||
|
Acrylic |
59.17 |
53.76 |
10.07 | ||
|
Vinylon (PVA) |
6.64 |
6.48 |
2.45 | ||
|
Polypropylene fiber (PP) |
22.64 |
20.23 |
11.93 | ||
|
Spandex |
42.89 |
38.35 |
11.83 | ||
The entire operation rate of the chemical fiber industry was higher than that of the same period of 2016. In particularly, the average load of the polyester filament yarn industry maintained at a relatively high level of about 85%. In addition, the inventory was rather low and the sales situation was good. The load of both direct spinning and chip spinning enterprises saw obvious increase compared with the same period of the previous year. The load of the direct spinning still reached the high level of over 90%. The characteristics of the traditional low and peak seasons have weakened. In the traditional low seasons, it still kept a relatively high load, thus presenting the condition of not slack in low seasons. There are two reasons for this: The first is the intensified product differentiation. New demands are required for off seasons, such as the flat filament. The second is the advanced releasing of demand caused by environmental inspection. The downstream factories try their best to prepare more inventories to cope with the order.
l Market
Conduced by the rising price of bulk commodities, from January to September, the average price of the main chemical fiber products rose 20% - 40% compared with the same period of the previous year. However, the stage tendency had great difference. The rise in January and February was in small amplitude; retracement happened from March to May; it had choppy rising from June to October.
The polyester market was mainly affected by the price fluctuation of crude oil, game playing between buyers and sellers of the PTA futures, change of demand and supply relationship and so on. From the beginning of 2017 to the Spring festival, the polyester product extended the rising tendency of the fourth quarter of 2016, with a slower increase amount. In the last ten day of February, the high levels of both the crude oil and commodity had retracement, thus forming suppression to the market mentality. Because of the high load in the previous period, the inventory of various links had obvious accumulation. Because of the bad news of the cost and demand-supply, the entire polyester industrial chain had depreciation in March. Although there was rebound in April, the inventory pressure had not been thoroughly resolved. The price continued to decline. In May, the inventory reduced to the low level while the terminal demand increases. The price of the polyester products started to rise relying on the tendency of cost rebound. Although the oil price was regulated lower in June once again, the demand of being not slack in off seasons still supported the continuous rise of the polyester products. Because of the comprehensive influence of cost rise, low inventory and slightly strong demand performance, the market atmosphere in March was very good.
The price trend of polyamide was almost all the same as that of the raw material CPL. From January to May, affected by the dramatic rise and drop of CPL price, the price of polyamide changed radically and the market offer was quite disordered. In May, as the oil price rebounds and demand increased, the price of polyamide chain products rose from the bottom; the market atmosphere improved; the price kept on rising.
Being influenced by the entire trend and raw material of the chemical fiber, the viscose staple fiber presented the tendency of rising firstly and dropping afterwards. Since June, the recovery of the rigid demand and the environmental pressure resulted in the declining of the practical operation output, demand-supply reversal and the rising price of viscose staple fiber products.
Although the chemical fiber had an obvious price rise since the second half of 2016, if we moved the time back to 2010, we could find that the price of the chemical fiber product has kept on declining since 2011, with the price drop exceeding the oil price. It means that the chemical fiber industry has extruded a certain profitability space for the downstream industries through its own structural regulation and technical improvement. This round of rise since the second half of the previous year was caused by the cost drive resulted by the rising price of bulk commodities on one hand, on the other hand, it was also the price regression of amending the continuous declining of the chemical fiber price. In addition, it still located in the relative historical low position at present.
l Inventory
The chemical fiber industry of 2016 was a process of destocking. The inventory of major products dropped to the low position at the end of the fourth quarter. However, as the inventory declined and the efficiency improved, the operation rate of the industry also promoted. The inventory of the chemical fiber has kept on increasing since 2017. The downstream output reduction in the Spring festival resulted in the declining demand and accelerated the accumulation of the chemical fiber inventory. The inventories of most products reached the peak at the end of March. The increasing inventory intensified the pressure of the fiber market. When the price of the raw material declined, the chemical fiber product lost the cost support and the price dropped quickly. As the downstream demand got warm, the market condition of destocking was implemented once again. As to the third quarter, the low inventory was one of the reasons of supporting the price rise of the chemical fiber market.
l Imports and exports
From January to September, the total imported chemical fiber reached 67,450 tons, with an increase of 12.47% on year-on-year basis. The amplification has expanded 5.91% compared the first half year. It displays that the domestic market has a certain rigid demand to the imported product. Only the import quantity of spandex had a slight drop. The import quantity of other products had increases of different degrees. The polyester staple fiber and polyester filament yarn had relatively big growth rate, which reflected the expansion of the domestic demand. The viscose staple fibre was still the maximum imported variety. The imported product was mainly the modal fibre.
From the perspective of overseas market demand, the accelerated growth of the global economy and the recovery of the manufacturing industry, the growth rates of both economy and trade set new records in the almost six years. Meanwhile, as the accelerated regulation of global textile industrial arrangement, the demand to the chemical fiber product also increased. From January to September, the direct export of the chemical fiber in our country was 3.09 million tons, with a growth of 3.87% on year-on-year basis. The export amount of the whole year was expected to break through 4 million tons. The top five export markets were Turkey, the United States, Pakistan, Vietnam and Indonesia. Furthermore, the polyester filament yarn exported to Egypt had a relatively fast growth.
Table 2: Imports and Exports of the Chemical Fiber Products, Jan. - Sep., 2017
|
|
Import volume (ton) |
Y/Y (%) |
Export volume (ton) |
Y/Y (%) |
|
Chemical fiber |
674696.3 |
12.47 |
3091920.9 |
3.87 |
|
Polyester filament |
97863.8 |
11.98 |
1559918.1 |
2.77 |
|
Polyester staple fiber |
106607.9 |
23.47 |
783480.9 |
5.27 |
|
Polyamide filament |
82841.5 |
1.98 |
161395.8 |
15.06 |
|
Acrylic fiber |
117565.3 |
2.97 |
34444.1 |
54.55 |
|
Viscose filament |
3750.1 |
9.13 |
60002.2 |
7.61 |
|
Viscose staple fiber |
154740.3 |
7.49 |
245569.9 |
-3.93 |
|
Spandex |
18964.0 |
-3.90 |
42896.7 |
-2.17 |
l Demand
All the Dieshiqiao home textiles index and Changshu men’s wear index as well as other business indexes collected from downstream textile had recovery performance. As a whole, the business conditions of the key markets in China showed an upward trend. As the terminal demand recovered, the main downstream industries of the chemical fiber - elasticizer, weaving machine, warp knitting and so on have increases of different degrees in the using rates than the same period of the previous year. In particularly, the elasticizer kept a relatively high using rate. It is learned that the DTY usage of the fabrics for the downstream weaving and manufacturing in recent years reached about 65%. In particularly, the DTY used percentage of the wool products manufactured on the weaving, warp knitting and weft knitting reached over 75%.
l Investment
From January to September, the practical completion of fixed asset investment in the chemical fiber industry was 99.167 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.96%. The growth rate had a resilient tendency. Thereinto, the polyester industry had a growth of 50.01%; the man-made fiber industry had a growth of 27.43%. The growth rate of the polyamide industry had somewhat declining then the previous years.
Table 3 Fixed Asset Investments in Chemical Fiber Industry, Jan. - Sep., 2017
|
|
Practical completed investment amount (billion RMB) |
Y/Y (%) | |
|
Manufacturing of chemical fiber |
99.167 |
17.96 | |
|
Cellulose fiber raw material and fiber manufacturing |
20.979 |
16.49 | |
|
|
Manufacturing of chemical fiber pulp |
2.423 |
-29.72 |
|
Manufacturing of man-made fibers |
18.556 |
27.43 | |
|
Synthetic fiber manufacturing |
78.188 |
18.36 | |
|
|
Polyamide fiber manufacturing |
14.188 |
5.42 |
|
Polyester fiber manufacturing |
30.655 |
50.01 | |
|
Acrylic manufacturing |
1.602 |
13.74 | |
|
PVA fiber manufacturing |
0.725 |
-13.67 | |
|
Polypropylene fiber manufacturing |
1.388 |
21.72 | |
|
Spandex fiber manufacturing |
4.663 |
9.57 | |
|
Other synthetic fiber manufacturing |
24.965 |
1.83 | |
Since the chemical fiber industry entered into the phase of adjustment in 2012, the growth rate of the fixed-asset investment also dropped after rise continuously. However, the growth rate in 2017 had obvious rebound compared with the previous few years. Although the investments in intelligent manufacturing, green manufacturing, fiber new material and other aspects also increased, it also requires to have close track, so as to prevent from wasting the previous efforts in controlling the total volume.
l Performance
According to the data of National Bureau of Statistics: from January to September, the main business income of the chemical fiber industry was RMB 647.2 billion, with a growth rate of 16.28% year on year. It has realized the total profit of RMB 32.2 billion, with a great year-on-year increase of 50.18%. It is the quickest industry in the textile sub-industries. The scale of losses of the industry was 14.44%, with a reduction of 6.12% on year-on-year basis. The deficit of the unprofitable companies had a great reduction of 38.9% on a year-on-year basis.
The industry profit mainly came from polyester, man-made fiber and polyamide industries, in which, the total profit of the polyester industry was RMB 14.229 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 93.81%; the second was the man-made industry, which had a total profit of RMB 10.127 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 24.99%; the polyamide industry has a total profit of RMB 3.412 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 24.16%. the spandex industry had a year-on-year growth of the total profit of 57.86%.
Table 4 Economic Performances in Chemical Fiber Industry, Jan. – Sep., 2017
(Unit: 100 million yuan)
|
|
Total profits |
Losses of loss-making enterprises | ||||
|
Jan. – Sep. |
The same period of the previous year |
Y/Y (%) |
Jan. – Sep. |
The same period of the previous year |
Y/Y (%) | |
|
Chemical fiber industry |
321.93 |
214.37 |
50.18 |
20.38 |
33.36 |
-38.90 |
|
Of them: Man-made fibers |
101.27 |
81.02 |
24.99 |
5.56 |
3.90 |
42.67 |
|
Polyamide fiber |
34.12 |
27.48 |
24.16 |
2.19 |
2.48 |
-11.63 |
|
Polyester fiber |
142.29 |
73.42 |
93.81 |
8.74 |
20.36 |
-57.06 |
|
Acrylic |
2.94 |
3.14 |
-6.30 |
0.34 |
0.14 |
140.21 |
|
Vinylon (PVA) |
1.19 |
0.81 |
46.07 |
0.08 |
0.11 |
-29.54 |
|
Polypropylene fiber (PP) |
2.17 |
2.04 |
6.86 |
0.11 |
0.20 |
-47.17 |
|
Spandex |
15.86 |
10.04 |
57.86 |
1.49 |
2.80 |
-46.56 |
|
Other synthetic fiber manufacturing |
13.10 |
9.66 |
35.58 |
1.16 |
2.32 |
-49.96 |
Observing from the operation quality of the chemical fiber industry: the profitability of the industry intensified significantly. The profit rate of the main business reached 4.97%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.12%. The average liability level had a certain declining while the debt paying ability increased. The capital usage efficiency turned better slightly. The percentage of the three costs declined, in which, the financial cost had an obvious year-on-year declining.
The great increase of the industrial profit was mainly caused by the rising price of the chemical fiber products and the expansion of the processing section of the products.
Operation prediction
Within 2017, the macro economy in China has the basis for continuous promoting. The market expectation is sound. The world economy is also experiencing the widest synchronous recovery in the latest ten years, which can provide positive support for the stable growth of the industrial demand. However, after the continuous rise of the chemical fiber products, the cautious and hesitation emotions of the market intensify. Combined with the newly-increased capacity prediction, the supply-demand relationship might change. Therefore, even the oil price rises, the difficulty of conducting to the downstream will become increasingly enhanced. It is estimated that the price of the chemical fiber products in the later half of the fourth quarter might drop. The entire operation efficiency of the chemical fiber industry this year is obvious better than that of the previous year.
